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CS2 Case Odds

The drop rates Valve publishes for every CS2 weapon case: four in five drops are Mil-Spec, and about one case in 385 holds a knife or a pair of gloves.

Drop rates by rarity

Valve’s published drop rates for CS2 weapon cases, per opening
RarityChanceOdds
Mil-Spec GradeBlue79.92%4 in 5
RestrictedPurple15.98%1 in 6
ClassifiedPink3.20%1 in 31
CovertRed0.64%1 in 156
Knife or glovesGold0.26%1 in 385

The same for every weapon case, per opening.

1,000 case openings, by rarityOne square per opening, at Valve’s rates.

Your chances over many cases

Every opening is independent, so the chance of at least one rare drop grows with each case you open, but never reaches certainty.

  • Knife or gloves

    22.9%

    chance of at least one

  • Covert

    47.4%

    chance of at least one

  • Classified

    96.1%

    chance of at least one

On average, 100 cases hold about 80 Mil-Spec Grade, 16 Restricted, 3.2 Classified, 0.64 Covert and 0.26 knives or gloves.

How many cases for a knife?

Cases you need to open for each chance of at least one drop
ChanceKnife or glovesCovertClassified
50%26710822
75%53321643
90%88535971
95%1,15146793
99%1,769718142

Cases to open for that chance of at least one drop of each kind.

Odds for every CS2 case

Every case shares the rates above; what differs is how many items split each tier. Pick a case for its full odds and contents.

Drop odds of every CS2 weapon case, newest first
CasePrice
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal2 Covert · 22 gloves$0.21
Revolution Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$0.14
Fever Case2 Covert · 48 knives$0.56
Gallery Case2 Covert · 13 knives$0.54
Kilowatt Case2 Covert · 13 knives$0.09
Recoil Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$0.18
Dreams & Nightmares Case2 Covert · 50 knives$0.86
Operation Riptide Case2 Covert · 50 knives$6.59
Snakebite Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$0.26
Operation Broken Fang Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$4.98
Fracture Case2 Covert · 52 knives$0.33
Prisma 2 Case2 Covert · 48 knives$0.89
CS20 Case2 Covert · 13 knives$0.73
Shattered Web Case2 Covert · 52 knives$3.56
Prisma Case2 Covert · 48 knives$0.97
Danger Zone Case2 Covert · 52 knives$0.97
Horizon Case2 Covert · 52 knives$1.32
Clutch Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$0.38
Spectrum 2 Case2 Covert · 60 knives$2.52
Operation Hydra Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$25
Spectrum Case2 Covert · 60 knives$3.04
Glove Case2 Covert · 24 gloves$9.22
Gamma 2 Case2 Covert · 50 knives$2.58
Gamma Case2 Covert · 50 knives$2.60
Chroma 3 Case2 Covert · 60 knives$3.05
Operation Wildfire Case2 Covert · 13 knives$2.48
Revolver Case2 Covert · 65 knives$2.35
Shadow Case2 Covert · 13 knives$1.42
Falchion Case2 Covert · 13 knives$1.47
Chroma 2 Case2 Covert · 60 knives$3.35
Chroma Case2 Covert · 60 knives$4.15
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case2 Covert · 65 knives$3.98
Operation Breakout Weapon Case2 Covert · 13 knives$6.59
Huntsman Weapon Case2 Covert · 13 knives$6.81
eSports 2014 Summer Case2 Covert · 65 knives$10.54
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case2 Covert · 65 knives$3.04
CS:GO Weapon Case 31 Covert · 65 knives$12.29
Winter Offensive Weapon Case2 Covert · 65 knives$8.53
CS:GO Weapon Case 21 Covert · 65 knives$17.98
eSports 2013 Winter Case1 Covert · 65 knives$10.04
Operation Bravo Case2 Covert · 65 knives$51.29
eSports 2013 Case1 Covert · 65 knives$41.95
CS:GO Weapon Case1 Covert · 65 knives$100.87

How a case picks your drop

Opening a case picks a rarity first, at the rates above, and then one item of that rarity, every item in the tier being treated as equally likely. The rates are the same for every case; cases differ in how many items share each tier. The Sealed Dead Hand Terminal has 2 Covert skins, so each has a 0.32% chance per opening.

Knives and gloves are the rare special items: a case’s 0.26% tier holds either knives or gloves, never both (8 of the 43 cases here hold gloves). The published rates stop at the rarity tier: they don’t cover Doppler phases or StatTrak™.

Every opening is independent. No case is ever “due” a knife: after 267 cases without one, the next case’s chance is still 0.26%.

Sticker capsules and autograph capsules have their own rarity tiers, so these rates don’t apply to them.

Common questions

What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?

0.26% per case, about 1 in 385. That tier holds a case’s knives, or its gloves in a glove case, so the odds of one particular knife are lower still.

How many cases does it take to get a knife?

385 on average, but nothing is guaranteed: after 267 cases the chance of at least one knife or pair of gloves is 50%, and after 1,151 it is 95%.

What are the odds of a Covert skin?

0.64% per case, about 1 in 156. In a case with two Covert skins, each has 0.32%.

Do all CS2 cases have the same odds?

Yes. Every weapon case uses the same rates by rarity; cases differ only in how many items share each tier, which changes each item’s own chance.

What are blues, purples, pinks, reds and golds?

Players name drops by their rarity colour: blue is Mil-Spec Grade (79.92%), purple is Restricted (15.98%), pink is Classified (3.20%), red is Covert (0.64%) and gold is a knife or gloves (0.26%).

Where these numbers come from

These are the per-rarity rates that Perfect World, Valve’s partner in China, published in 2017, when Chinese rules began requiring games to disclose loot-box odds. They are the rates quoted for every CS2 case today. Per-item chances on this site split a tier’s rate evenly across its items.

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